Ron Wood analyses the action from Meydan on World Cup night, when Hit Show landed a 66-1 upset in the $12m feature
There were shock results aplenty on Dubai World Cup day at Meydan on Saturday, with none more surprising – at least according to the international bookies – than Hit Show’s 66-1 success in the headline event.
Following his fine three-year-old season and a reappearance success in the Saudi Cup, Forever Young was confidently expected to win the big prize, being sent off at 4-9, the shortest price in the race since Arrogate justified 1-3 favouritism in 2017.
However, the Japanese horse was in trouble at halfway, needing encouragement from his jockey to stay in touch with the leaders, and Hit Show galloped on from a midfield position. Despite jockey Florent Geroux’s dropping his whip in the straight, he reeled in fellow outsider Mixto (40-1), making it a one-two for US-trained runners.
In form terms, Forever Young was nowhere near his peak level. He got a bit worked up beforehand and the signs are that his Saudi run took too much out of him – and he’s not alone in that regard. Horses who ran at Riyadh in February went a combined 0-20 in Dubai on Saturday, including two others sent off odds-on.
As such, it is to Forever Young’s credit that he battled on for third, but overall this has to be considered a substandard World Cup.
Although Brad Cox-trained Hit Show is a five-time graded winner in the States, he had been well held in three previous tries at the top level, finishing fifth and fourth respectively in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes in 2023.
Most recently, Hit Show was beaten over 12 lengths into third behind Locked in the Santa Anita Handicap. and Saturday’s result was certainly a nice boost the form of that Todd Pletcher-trained winner.
Either way, the deep Meydan surface suited the strong-staying Hit Show and it is doubtful he will ever better – or even repeat – this form.
Having pressed the pacesetting Walk Of Stars (faded to fourth), Doug O’Neill-trained runner-up Mixto looked the winner when taking over in the straight under Frankie Dettori. However, he couldn’t see it out, being beaten a half-length.
Mixto won last year’s G1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar, defeating subsequent Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Full Serrano, but like Hit Show, the O’Neill runner is no star and both will be vulnerable at the top level back home.
The betting market’s second choice Imperial Emperor had a rough race, dropping out to finish last, and was found to be lame afterwards.
The first Thoroughbred race of the day saw the nine-year-old Dubai Future take the two-mile Dubai Gold Cup, a G2 contest.
A steady early pace turned this event into a sprint, which suited a winner who has spent his career running over shorter trips, and it was a poor show from the jockeys on the real stayers in not making this more of a stamina test.
Raging Torrent, for the same jockey and trainer team as Mixto, was a dominant winner of the G2 Godolphin Mile on the dirt, following up his success in December’s seven-furlong G1 Malibu at Santa Anita.
The winner was value for even more than the 3½-length margin, setting strong fractions, with the next three finishers coming from well behind, and the Met Mile – at Saratoga on Belmont Stakes day in June – looks an obvious target.
Sticking with the Godolphin Mile, sixth-placed Mufasa is a must for the notebook with next season’s UAE campaign in mind. He defeated White Abarrio (started slowly) at Gulfstream Park in December, and hadn’t been with his new connections for long – he’s now trained locally by Bhupat Seemar – and he just got tired having pressed the winner for much of the way. It was striking how he tanked along through punishing fractions and he could win whatever they put him in next season.
Believing, withdrawn at the gate at the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint when unseating Ryan Moore, gave a quick return on Coolmore’s investment when taking the Al Quoz Sprint on the turf. This George Boughey-trained mare was having her first start since being sold to M V Magnier for three million guineas in December.
This six-frlong contest was steadily run, with Win Carnelian almost stealing it from the front for Japan, and Believing did well to get there. Moore surprisingly went to Australia instead of Dubai, so William Buick did the steering.
Although Believing had a series of near-misses in top sprints in Europe last term, she now looks set to win more big prizes. A word, too, on third-placed Regional. This was a fine effort from the 2023 Haydock Sprint Cup winner on his first start since last summer.
Sadly, though, the Hong Kong-trained Howdeepisyourlove, who was sent off favourite, suffered a fatal injury.
There was a fourth-straight Japanese-trained winner of the G2 UAE Derby, but Admire Daytona isn’t in the same league as Forever Young, who won the 2024 running before finishing a close third in the Kentucky Derby.
Admire Daytona earned 100 qualifying points, enough for a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs in May via the European-Middle East Road to the Kentucky Derby. Connections indicated that he will be added to the Triple Crown nominations for $6,000 before the deadline passes on Monday [April 7].
But if he doesn’t make it there, UAE Derby runner-up Heart Of Honor, beaten a nose for British trainer Jamie Osborne, could instead go to Louisville, though he would also need to have been added to the nominations.
US-trained Flood Zone was a big disappointment, failing to back up his success in the G3 Gotham at Aqueduct. There may well have been an excuse, however, as he was reported to have suffered a degree of EIPH (exercise-induced pulmonary haemorrhage, a condition that causes bleeding in the airways).
The first big shock of the day came in the six-furlong G1 Golden Shaheen on the dirt, with Dark Saffron, a three-year-old trained locally by Ahmad bin Harmash, overcoming a wide gate to make all.
Wesley Ward-trained Nakatomi was second, one place better than 12 months previously, and probably would have won had he not raced so wide. Look for him again in the summer at Saratoga, where he won last year’s G1 Vanderbilt.
Reigning Shaheen champ Tuz was a bit crowded towards the inside for much of the way and could manage only third. It’s hard to say where he might have finished with more room.
The odds-on favourite was last year’s Breeders’ Cup Sprint hero Straight No Chaser, who also won in Saudi Arabia in February, but he struggled badly with the harsh Meydan kickback and was reportedly mildly lame after the race.
Saudi Cup runner-up Romantic Warrior was the 2-5 favourite in the Dubai Turf, a G1 contest over nine furlongs, but he raced a bit fresh up with the pace and was in front about two furlongs out – too soon as it turned out. The world #1 was picked off by the Japanese-trained Soul Rush, whom he had beaten in Tokyo last June.
A tough race in Riyadh perhaps took the edge off Romantic Warrior, but he should have won the Saudi Cup – he went too wide and too soon then – and this feels like one that required a bit more patience from jockey James McDonald as well.
The 12-furlong Sheema Classic, like the earlier Dubai Gold Cup, was steadily run and turned into a late dash. Last year’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) winner Danon Decile got first run on runner-up Calandagan and maintained his advantage to the line.
This was promising enough in the circumstances from Calandagan, who had been off since October, and he’ll now be pointed to the Coronation Cup at Epsom on Oaks day in June.
• Visit the Dubai Racing Club website
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