Shock results all over the place in Dubai – but not enough to usurp the world leaders
Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose. The more things change, the more they stay the same.
World #1 racehorse Romantic Warrior and his Saudi Cup conqueror both suffered odds-on defeats on a Dubai World Cup card laden with shock results.
And you know what? Such is their overall body of work, that both retained their exalted positions in Thoroughbred Racing Commentary’s exclusive Global Rankings – as, for that matter, did James McDonald, now in his third week on top of the jockeys’ chart despite a disappointing night at Meydan.
Let’s start with the $12m main event, the Dubai World Cup in which Brad Cox-trained Hit Show (#22 from #33, +100pt), landed a 66-1 upset for the Wathnan Racing team (#9 from #19, +96pt), whose growing presence is reflected in a major jump up the owners’ charts.
In a career-best effort, Hit Show came from behind to run down Pacific Classic winner Mixto by a half-length, with Forever Young (stays at #4, -20pt) never looking entirely comfortable back in a well-beaten third.
“Only at the 100 metres did I think I could win,” admitted winning jockey Florent Geroux. “When I passed a lot of horses. Forever Young was my target and he was not travelling at all. I tried to find another horse to follow, from there my horse was game. For some reason, he just runs for me all the time, he is amazing.”
All roads lead to the Breeders’ Cup Classic for the winner, while Forever Young’s connections were seemingly left with a few gripes.
“It’s a pity, we got treated like an away team,” said trainer Yoshito Yahagi, speaking to Idol Horse website. “But that sounds like an excuse so I didn’t want to say this, but we were treated really badly. Because of that the horse was acting up and that was a disadvantage for him. I think we should have overcome that and we have no excuse for losing.”
‘Forever Young was nowhere near his peak level’ – reflections on a Dubai card full of shock results
Jockey Ryusei Sakai added: “He ran a great race in Saudi and I expected him to win if he ran his race but it was a tough race as he was the horse to beat. It was tough and we did our best. He wasn’t traveling at all. It wasn’t an easy race and hard to keep winning.”
Earlier on the Meydan card, Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior (stays at #1, -30pt) was agonisingly denied by the late bid of Soul Rush (#9 from #19, +154pt), one of three winners on the night for Japan.
Having kicked on turning for home and getting what looked a decisive break on his rivals, the highest-earning racehorse of all-time looked sure to claim the $5m prize – only to lose out by a pixel in the tightest of photo-finishes.
A ‘nose’ was the verdict, as Cristian Demuro (#63 from #76, +25pt) pinched the race on the Japanese seven-year-old. “I was more sure that I had won but I didn't want to get ahead of myself,” said the rider. “It is a special win because we are now part of the Romantic Warrior story; he doesn't lose many races, but today he found a good horse.”
For his part, James McDonald (stays at #1, -14pt) again copped some flak for allegedly moving too soon on the odds-on favourite, who clings onto the #1 spot by only 37pts from his HK compatriot Ka Ying Rising. The latter has a chance to claim pole position in the G1 Chairman’s Sprint Prize at Sha Tin on April 27.
Rankings latest: James McDonald claims world #1 spot from Ryan Moore
Although McDonald retains top spot on our jockeys’ rankings, the Kiwi endured a horrible evening to forget as he left behind the pleasures of the first day of The Championships in Sydney to ride in Dubai. He was last of 14 on Sword Point in the Godolphin Mile, while worse was to follow aboard favored Howdeepisyourlove in the Al Quoz Sprint.
Having clipped heels, the five-year-old gelding suffered a fatal injury in the G1 event, which was won by UK-based Believing, who returns to the rankings at #44.
Another jockey who came in for a degree of criticism was Mickael Barzalona, who gave the Aga Khan’s Calandagan (re-enters at #28) a lot to do in a slowly run Dubai Sheema Classic. Too much to do, as it transpired, as Calandagan lost out by a length and a quarter to impressive Japanese-trained winner Danon Decile (#10 from #41, +201pt).
The winner, better placed in the run, produced a fine closing sectional to win the $6m event. A four-year-old son of Japan cup winner Epiphaneia, Danon Decile won last year’s Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and looks like the next cab off the rank among top Japanese middle-distance performers.
Other major movers at Meydan were headed by G2 Godolphin Mile winner Raging Torrent (#31 from #65, +137pt) and local three-year-old Dark Saffron (#100 from #1432, +464pt), who posted a shock in the Dubai Golden Shaheen.
There was no shortage of G1 action elsewhere last week, when Journalism (#29 from #79, +180pt) cemented his status as Kentucky Derby favourite with a solid victory in the Santa Anita Derby. Tenma (#58 from #134, +115pt) also gets a nice bump for winning the G2 Santa Anita Oaks; her sire Nyquist (#4 from #6, +75pt) climbs the charts among dirt sires.
With his Japanese compatriots away scorching the Dubai turf, Bellagio Opera (#33 from #144, +243pt) took advantage at home by completing back-to-back successes in the G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin. In a dominant display, the five-year-old shattered the stakes record by 1.2 secs, being clocked at 1m56.2 for the 2,000 mteres on good to firm ground.
In Australia, William Haggas-trained Dubai Honour (#29 from #52, +157pt) took his unbeaten record down under to four in the rescheduled Tancred Stakes at Rosehill, where three-year-old filly Treasurethe Moment (#12 from #20, +47pt) landed her fifth Group race on the bounce in the Vinery Stud Stakes.
Trainer Matt Laurie (#49 from #53, +81pt) was also in G1-winning form on Day One of The Championships at Randwick on Saturday [April 5] with the two-year-old Vinrock.
The showpiece Randwick card was marked by an overwhelming success for the impressive filly Aeliana (#32 from #104, +190pt), who slammed her male counterparts in the ATC Australian Derby (former AJC Derby). Stefi Magnetica (#47 from #223, +234pt) also moves up after short-heading Royal Patronage in the Doncaster Mile.
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• Unlike traditional methods of racehorse rankings, TRC Global Rankings are a measure of an individual’s level of achievement over a rolling three-year period, providing a principled hierarchy of the leading horses, jockeys, trainers, owners and sires using statistical learning techniques. Racehorse rankings can be compared to similar exercises in other sports, like the golf’s world rankings or the ATP rankings in tennis.
They are formulated from the last three years of races we consider Group or Graded class all over the world and update automatically each week according to the quality of a horse’s performances and their recency, taking into account how races work out.