Ron Wood’s confidence in the Kentucky Derby favorite’s chances were only enhanced by his latest performance – read his weekly update on America’s greatest race
As they began the turn for home in last Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, hot favorite Journalism suddenly looked in all sorts of bother. By the time this exciting colt hit the line, he had solidified his position as the leading three-year-old dirt runner in the US.
Journallism really had no right to win given how the race unfolded. The inside gate didn’t help him, even in a field of only five runners. He started fine, but was caught in a pocket on the inside by the first turn and this sizeable type became short of room on the home bend, at which point he was last.
Journalism – now part-owned by Coolmore, who will stand him at Ashford upon his retirement – moved into third before the top of the stretch and then gradually wore down runner-up Baeza, winning by three-quarters of a length. It was another 8½ lengths back to third-placed Westwood.
Journalism’s 102 Beyer speed figure was short of the division-leading 108 he recorded when winning the San Felipe at Santa Anita the time before. However, horses don’t typically recover from having their momentum checked on the dirt and this performance pointed to his top-class potential every bit as much as the stopwatch had suggested last time.
His jockey Umberto Rispoli agreed. “That’s such a good animal to be able to get out of there,” he said.
“It’s rare for a horse to get held up at the three-eighths pole and to get back in the race in that way. It’s always difficult, especially for such a big horse – but he has such an amazing style and is just an amazing horse.”
Trainer Michael McCarthy added: “He had me worried for a jump or two. Special horse.”
The form of Journalism’s San Felipe win had been boosted just before the Santa Anita Derby when third-placed Rodriguez, beaten over 11 lengths, won the G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Journalism had also been a little pinned on the inside in the San Felipe and such experiences should help him cope with 19 rivals at Churchill Downs next month.
Runner-up Baeza was hard to read beforehand. It was, and still is, all about potential with this guy as he had won just a Santa Anita maiden in an ordinary time on his third start. That said, he is a half-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby hero Mage, as well as last year’s Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch.
What is more, he’s also a big horse, a May foal who was born three months after Journalism. He won’t even be fully three until after the Kentucky Derby.
Baeza may even have made the most of the favorite’s less-than-ideal trip had he not hung left under pressure, and it was notable he galloped out well past the winner after the line.
It looked a particularly hard race for Journalism and he has only four weeks to recover, but there’s surely better to come from both of them. The winner has already shown he can run faster, and Baeza has plenty of room to mature.
If Journalism gets to Louisville in one piece, he will go off favorite for the Kentucky Derby. He is now a best-priced 7-2 with international bookies; he was also 5-1 market leader in Future Wager Pool 6, which closed ahead of Saturday’s race.
He may not even face a rematch with the promising Baeza beneath the Twin Spires. With the Santa Anita Derby attracting such a small field, qualifying points for the big race were reduced by 25%, so Baeza picked up just 37½ points. Others will need to drop out if he’s to get a run and trainer John Shirreffs doesn’t sound keen on sending him as a reserve.
Maybe we'll have to wait until the Preakness – after Journalism has bagged the first leg of the Triple Crown – for another clash between the Santa Anita principals.
The Bob Baffert-trained pair Citizen Bull and Barnes were disappointing in the Santa Anita Derby, finishing well-beaten in fourth and fifth respectively.
Citizen Bull, last year’s champion juvenile, had been off for two months since defeating the same connections’ Rodriguez in a G3 at Santa Anita and the trainer felt he wasn’t fit enough to do himself justice at the weekend.
Wood Memorial: Runner-up Grande the name to note
Rodriguez earned a 101 Beyer for his Wood Memorial success. However, he was allowed to dominate while going the shortest way round from the inside gate. By the way, the promising Hill Road – of whom we have spoken highly in this slot – was scratched with a fever.
Rodriguez is a late May foal – even younger than Baeza – and his sire Authentic improved through his three-year-old season to win the delayed Kentucky Derby of 2020, when the race was run in September.
However, the Derby, including the drawn-out build-up, will be much more challenging. Remember, Baffert noted before the Wood that Rodriguez is still mentally immature and he was worried that if he sent him to Keeneland for the Blue Grass he could get too stirred up.
The Todd Pletcher-trained Grande, runner-up in the Wood, is of more interest. He was caught wide and was shuffled back on the first turn, before rushing up to press the leaders down the back side. Although he was then outpaced on the home bend, he stuck at it to claim a clear second behind a rival who had the complete run of it.
Grande was light on experience, having won both his previous starts in minor races at Gulfstream, and his being sent to Aqueduct rather than staying home for the Florida Derby (or going to Keeneland for the Blue Grass) suggested he was down the pecking order in the Pletcher barn.
But he showed plenty of talent – and no shortage of stamina – on Saturday.
This son of Curlin earned a 97 Beyer. That leaves him plenty to find with the likes of Journalism but puts him in the mix with plenty of others who are prominent in the market and he is one horse who could take a big jump forward with the benefit of his Aqueduct outing and a more efficient trip. Grande is 66-1 internationally for the Kentucky Derby, but he’s qualified now and there are worse outsiders.
UAE Derby one-two sign up for Kentucky
It was also the UAE Derby on the Dubai World Cup card at Meydan on Saturday and both narrow winner Admire Daytona and runner-up Heart Of Honor have since been added to the Triple Crown nominations at a cost of $6,000. They are the headliners among five late additions.
They're unlikely to be good enough to contend in Kentucky, but the Japanese-trained Admire Daytona was boosting the claims of the promising Luxor Cafe, having earlier twice finished behind his compatriot at home.
Blue Grass: Only ordinary form as Burnham Square scores
Strong storms prompted a state of emergency in Kentucky last week and Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes was moved from Saturday to Tuesday [April 8], making it the final major Derby prep.
A thrilling race ensued, but the bare form is relatively ordinary. Burnham Square, with last year’s Derby-winning jockey Brian Hernandez taking over, came from last to nab the front-running East Avenue on the line.
While the winner now tops the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard on 130 points, he earned just a 96 Beyer speed figure and there was little more than four lengths covering all six runners.
Burnham Square was reversing Gulfstream form with third-placed River Thames (both finished behind Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth) and was building on his G3 Holy Bull success when subsequent Florida Derby winner Tappan Street was runner-up. Plus, he may do better again for an extra furlong at Churchill Downs.
However, the east coast form is muddled and lacking a standout performer.
This was a big return to form for the newly blinkered East Avenue, who had looked so promising when winning the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last year. He kept on in Tuesday's race, having looked likely to drop away turning in, and could come on for his first start in seven weeks.
There is one Derby points race remaining, the G3 Lexington at Keeneland this Saturday. But it offers only 20 points to the winner, which probably won’t be enough for a Derby start.
Still, there’s an intriguing runner in Bullard, a stablemate of Journalism. He’s been off since a disappointing run in January – he got sick ahead of an intended start in February – but had earlier looked smart in taking the G3 Bob Hope at Del Mar and he remains highly regarded.
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Gulfstream Park website
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Tampa prep merits a serious look – just ignore the winner and concentrate on third-placed Hill Road
Journalism: Read all about it – now we’re talking about a proper Kentucky Derby contender
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