With under three weeks to go, our series continues with a detailed analysis of how the final field is looking after the final qualifying event
After seven months and 48 races, the Road to the Kentucky Derby is complete and – apart from the inevitable late dramas – the final field for America’s most famous race is almost set.
With the Derby now less than three weeks away, the series concluded with the G3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland on Saturday [April 12], in which Gosger – a lightly raced colt trained by Brendan Walsh – wore down front-running 25-1 shot Bracket Buster in the final sixteenth for a two-length victory.
With only 20 Derby qualifying points on offer to the winner, neither principal is likely to appear at Churchill Downs, though both are possibles for the Preakness two weeks later.
Gosger would need to improve to become a serious contender for the second leg of the Triple Crown, as he didn’t run especially fast on speed figures at the weekend. But he was still green, and he’s a half-brother to G1 (turf) winner Harvey's Lil Goil, so he has some potential. Gosger’s sire Nyquist won the Kentucky Derby in 2016, but was only third in the Preakness.
As for Lexington runner-up Bracket Buster, he could also make Pimlico, having “always been in consideration for the three-year-old stakes,” according to trainer Vicki Oliver.
But never mind all that for now. It is hard enough finding the Derby winner, let alone jumping ahead to the second leg, so let’s have a proper look at how the field is shaping up for Churchill Downs.
There can be a maximum of 20 runners, and 18 spots are going to US-trained runners. Burnham Square topped the leaderboard on the Road to the Kentucky Derby with 130 qualifying points, the bulk of them gained through his narrow victory in the Blue Grass at Keeneland.
Next on the list is Sandman, who landed the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, and then there’s the favorite Journalism, long since our number one contender who overcame a troubled trip to win the Santa Anita Derby.
Rodriguez punched his ticket with a front-running score in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and Tiztastic earned a spot with an off-the-pace success in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
Florida Derby one-two Tappan Street and Sovereignty have their spots reserved, while Final Gambit, who came from out the back to win the Jeff Ruby on the all-weather at Turfway, is set for what will be his first start on dirt.
No horse deserves a spot more than Coal Battle, who has taken in four designated trials, winning three of them before finishing third behind Sandman in the Arkansas Derby.
The tenth horse on the list is Chunk Of Gold. He was a distant second to the now-sidelined Magnitude in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, before filling the same spot behind Tiztastic in the Louisiana Derby.
Last year’s champion two-year-old Citizen Bull is seemingly still an intended runner, but he needs to rebound into form, having finished a distant fourth in the Santa Anita Derby.
East Avenue, from the same barn as Gosger, was something of a forgotten horse until earning his Derby seat with a back-to-form, battling effort from the front in the Blue Grass, just being denied by Burnham Square. Luan Machado, who rode East Avenue, is booked for Final Gambit in the Derby.
Publisher is still a maiden after seven starts but he gets a run thanks to his second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby. Brokers Tip in 1933 was the last maiden to win the Roses but the booking of Irad Ortiz is a positive move.
American Promise secured his Derby berth by landing a new race in the series, the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs.
River Thames came up short of top spot in a couple of qualifiers, most recently finishing a close third behind Burnham Square and East Avenue in the Blue Grass. He’s still being trained for Churchill Downs, but Ortiz has jumped ship.
Gotham Stakes winner Flood Zone is no longer under consideration after a poor showing in the UAE Derby; neither is Tampa Bay Derby winner Owen Almighty, who was unplaced in the Blue Grass.
There were two Derby places available via the European-Middle East route, but Heart Of Honor isn’t going to Louisville – he could go for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes instead – so it’s only Admire Daytona, who narrowly won the Meydan race for Japan, who’ll be accepting the invitation.
The actual Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby was won by Luxor Cafe thanks to his victories in the Hyacinth and the Fukuryu Stakes, and he’s an intended runner.
Right, that's a lot of horses. Let's take stock. We’re up to 15 US-trained runners and the two from Japan. That leaves three spots, which look like being taken by Jeff Ruby runner-up Flying Mohawk, Wood Memorial second Grande and Madaket Road. The last-named has been beaten in three Derby qualifiers, most recently finishing fourth in the Florida Derby.
John Velazquez, riding in Dubai when Grande ran at Aqueduct, will be back aboard the Todd Pletcher runner at Churchill Downs, replacing Dylan Davis.
So, that makes 20. But we're not done yet. As many as 24 horses can enter, four of them going on the also-eligible list, although runners pointing to the race need to be on the grounds at Churchill Downs by 11am on April 26, one week before the race and entry day for the Derby.
The first horse on the reserve list is Built, who won a minor Derby prep at Fair Grounds but was subsequently beaten in three more qualifiers at the same venue. He’s more likely for the Pat Day Mile on the undercard.
Then there is the Florida Derby third Neoequos. He’s being considered for a switch to grass in the America Turf at the Kentucky Derby meeting. That takes us to Render Judgment, runner-up in the Virginia Derby and fifth in the Blue Grass. This one might end up as the first ‘also-eligible’, although it has been suggested his connections are also considering other options.
However it’s at this point we get to the promising Baeza. This half-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage will attract plenty of interest if he sneaks in, having finished second to Journalism in the Santa Anita Derby.
While his trainer John Shirreffs doesn’t love the idea of shipping the horse across the country to sit on the reserve list, he is training Baeza as though he’s going to run. He looks a threat if he gets a chance to run.
And all of that takes us back to Gosger, next on the list behind Baeza. Oh, and what about Hill Road, who missed his intended final prep after spiking a fever before the Wood, thereby ensuring he could not accrue enough points for Churchill Downs? He’s another under consideration for the Preakness.
Derby rundown: the putative field for Churchill Downs
- Burnham Square Ian Wilkes (trainer), Brian Hernandez (jockey)
- Sandman Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz
- Journalism Michael McCarthy, Umberto Rispoli
- Rodriguez Bob Baffert, Mike Smith
- Tiztastic Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario
- Tappan Street Brad Cox, Luis Saez
- Sovereignty Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado
- Final Gambit Brad Cox, Luan Machado
- Coal Battle Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas
- Chunk Of Gold Ethan West, Jareth Loveberry
- Citizen Bull Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia
- East Avenue Brendan Walsh, TBC
- Publisher Steve Asmussen, Irad Ortiz
- American Promise D. Wayne Lukas, Nik Juarez
- River Thames Todd Pletcher, TBC
- Flying Mohawk Whit Beckman, Joseph Ramos
- Grande Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez
- Madaket Road Bob Baffert, TBC
- Admire Daytona Yukihiro Kato, Christophe Lemaire
- Luxor Cafe Noriyuki Hori, TBC
- Built Wayne Catalano, TBC (also eligible)
- Neoequos Saffie Joseph, TBC (also eligible)
- Render Judgment Ken McPeek, TBC (also eligible)
- Baeza John Shirreffs, TBC (also eligible)
• Visit the Kentucky Derby website and the Keeneland website
‘An amazing style and an amazing horse’ – Journalism maintains pole position
American Promise: D. Wayne Lukas is back on the Derby trail – but the negatives cannot be denied
View the latest TRC Global Rankings for horses / jockeys / trainers / sires