They’re both outstanding racehorses – but only one of them is an equine legend. So how close is Baaeed to following in the great Frankel’s footsteps? Graham Dench assesses the evidence
The superlatives were certainly flying after the brilliant Baaeed extended his unbeaten record to seven with a sparkling display at Newbury on his four-year-old debut in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes.
But although pundits have so far stopped short of suggesting the new world #1 might be as good as the legendary Frankel, the ‘F-word’ came up repeatedly after the four-year-old dismissed the classy Real World – never before beaten on turf – in the one-mile contest.
The William Haggas-trained colt is now odds-on for his next assignment at Royal Ascot in the Queen Anne Stakes, where he is set to bid for his fourth successive G1 triumph.
Brilliant Baaeed storms to world #1 spot with Newbury blockbuster
Rightly or wrongly, the idea that Baaeed is the best since Frankel is already gaining serious traction. If he can stay unbeaten – maybe following the Frankel path via the Sussex Stakes, Juddmonte International and perhaps the Champion Stakes – then such comparisons will only increase.
So how do the pair stack up? Let’s examine the evidence.
The basics
Frankel pedigree bh Galileo - Kind (Danehill) foaled February 11, 2008 owner Khalid Abdullah breeder Juddmonte Farms Ltd; trainer Sir Henry Cecil jockey Tom Queally
Baaeed pedigree bc Sea The Stars - Aghareed (Kingmambo); foaled April 18, 2018; owner Shadwell Estate Company Ltd; breeder Shadwell Estate Company Ltd; trainer William Haggas; jockey Jim Crowley
Career details
Frankel 14 winsfrom 14 runs (10 at G1); retired with career earnings of £2,998,302 (approx $3.7m)
Widest win margin: 13 lengths (Doncaster conditions race on second start)
Aggregate win distance: 75¼ lengths (average 5.35)
Most spectacular win: incredible 2,000 Guineas romp (just ahead of sensational Queen Anne)
Best win on TRC figures: Juddmonte International 138
Shortest odds: 1-20 for second Sussex Stakes
Longest odds: 7-4 on debut
Baaeed 7 wins from 7 runs (3 at G1); earnings to date £1,147,822 (approx $1.4m)
Widest win margin: 7½ lengths (Newmarket novice event on second start)
Aggregate win distance: 24 lengths (average 3.43)
Most spectacular win: brutal Lockinge demolition (just ahead of tremendous 6½-length G3 success at Goodwood)
Best win on TRC figures: Lockinge Stakes 129
Shortest odds: 2-5 for Goodwood G3
Longest odds: 6-1 on debut
At this stage …
Baaeed did not make his debut until June of his three-year-old career, by which time Frankel was already six out of six. This included two major G1s in the Dewhurst at two and the Guineas at three – before Baaeed was even out of the blocks. With seven straight wins Baaeed has done a bit of catching up, although by the same stage of his career Frankel had added a further four wins (all of them G1) to make it ten from ten.
Shall we talk about it?
Frankel
Sir Henry Cecil (trainer): “He’s the best I’ve ever had, the best I’ve ever seen. I’d be very surprised if there’s ever been a better horse.”
Teddy Grimthorpe (racing manager): “We are living the dream. You get so spoiled that you expect this from him. The expectations are just enormous, but the fact is he keeps delivering time and again. Each time he runs we say ‘That was amazing’, then the next time. ‘That was fantastic’. That is Frankel. I’ve never seen anything like him.” (speaking after Juddmonte International)
Baaeed
Jim Crowley (jockey): “It was like a piece of work. He is a serious horse. It’s very exciting. I am sure Sheikh Hamdan, who spent a lifetime trying to breed a horse like this, is watching down. He has everything you want in a racehorse. I can’t think of a weakness. He looks like he could be the best I’ve ridden.” (speaking after Lockinge)
William Haggas (trainer): “I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s the best horse in the world – it’s not the sort of thing I’d say – but he’s done very well and it was a strong field. I was impressed. He is a good horse and has a great temperament. He will go for the Queen Anne Stakes and if we step him up in distance he will go for the Juddmonte. Frankel arguably was at his most imperious when he ran in the Juddmonte on that unforgettable day. So we will try it at some stage.” (speaking after the Lockinge)
On the numbers
TRC Com
puter Race Ratings
Frankel’s best 138, Baaeed’s best 129
“Baaeed is now the 19th different world #1 since we started ranking horses in 2014 and he could end up as one of the best, though he has some way to go yet to reach the same company of Winx, American Pharoah and Enable. Frankel had been retired when our classifications began, but the computer did score his performances at 138. So, comparisons with the great horse are a little hasty in my book, but that is to no horse’s detriment – it is like comparing human sprinters with Usain Bolt.” James Willoughby, rankings expert
TRC Global Rankings points Frankel not available, Baaeed 2108pts (best portfolio)
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“Baaeed’s current TRC Global Rankings portfolio stands at a respectable 2108pts – enough to be clear world #1. However, there have been 19 different world #1s since 2014, with portfolios ranging from from 2035pts [Nature Strip in April 2022] to 2796pts [Winx in April 2017], with the median being 2408pts. Frankel’s exploits came before the first full list was completed in 2014 and thus we don’t know how many points his portfolio was worth. But it would have been significantly better than anything since – probably close to the 3000-mark.”Nicholas Godfrey, TRC editor
Timeform Frankel 147, Baaeed 134
“For the second year running Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes went to the previous season’s top three-year-old miler, though Baaeed (134 from 130) won even more convincingly than 2021 winner Palace Pier (whom he’d beaten at Ascot on his final start last year) and took his form up a notch. As an unbeaten Lockinge winner, some might be tempted to draw comparisons between Baaeed and Frankel, but while the similarities between the two end there, it’s still a big compliment to rate Baaeed the best Lockinge winner since Frankel.” John Ingles, Timeform
Official ratings (BHA/IFHA) Frankel 140, Baaeed 125
“Baaeed did no more than what the best of his form last year entitled him to, and I don't believe that mathematically he improved on his 125. He went into the race with 7lb in hand of Real World and beat him 3¼ lengths, and with 13lb in hand of Chindit, who he beat five lengths. But I have no doubt that he is a 130 horse – given the right circumstances and the right opposition." Dominic Gardiner-Hill, BHA head of handicapping
Racing Post Ratings Frankel 143, Baaeed 129
"Baaeed looked better than ever in making an impressive return to action in the Lockinge, laying down a daunting marker for the rest of the season with a slightly improved Racing Post Rating of 129+. The Lockinge wasn't the strongest of runnings and Baaeed really did only what he was entitled to on the figures. However, it was hard not to be impressed and he looks well worth the small upgrade on his three-year-old levels. It will be a surprise if Baaeed doesn't rate higher still, but in terms of figures he's still a stone behind the highest-rated racehorse in RPR history.” Paul Curtis, Racing Post
Similar in some ways …
1. Both are unbeaten.
2. Both have impeccable pedigrees and were bred by two of the foremost breeding operations of the last 50 years. They raced for their breeders, or in Baaeed’s case his dependents.
3. Frankel is by Galileo, and Baaeed is by a half-brother to Galileo, Sea The Stars.
4. Both trained in Newmarket by acknowledged masters of their trade.
… but they’re really quite different
1. Frankel was a champion 2yo (officially joint champion, with Dream Ahead, but outright champion to most eyes). Baaeed was not ready to race at two and did not see a racecourse until the following June.
2. Frankel's domination spanned three full seasons. Baaeed has been racing less than a year and is only now being widely recognised as at the top of the tree.
3. Baaeed is already a G1 winner abroad, whereas Frankel spent his entire career in England.
4. Frankel got the job done even when he was thought to be at his most vulnerable, beating Cirrus Des Aigles in really soft ground in the Qipco Champion Stakes on his final start. Baaeed has yet to encounter extremes of going.
5. Frankel was a headstrong, free-going type who benefited from the assistance of a pacemaker – older half-brother Bullet Train – both at home and in many of his races. Baaeed is a more naturally amenable individual and looks a more straightforward ride.
6. Frankel was a most imposing individual with huge charisma, who stood out in every parade ring as the embodiment of the perfect specimen. Baaeed is a good-looking colt with no obvious flaws, but he lacks Frankel’s stature.
7. Despite never racing abroad, Frankel’s name clearly resonated on the world stage, where he was mentioned in the same breath as Secretariat and Phar Lap as an all-time legend. Baaeed doesn’t yet register beyond Europe.
Graham Dench’s conclusion
Baaeed may yet be capable of more and achieve a higher rating, both according to TRC Global Rankings and conventional handicapping techniques. But he has some way to go before he is breathing anything like the same air as Frankel.
As visually impressive as Baaeed was in the Lockinge, it is a plausible argument that he did no more than he was entitled to do. For example, the BHA’s mark of 125 following the Lockinge was no improvement on Baaeed’s end-of-year rating for 2021 on the sport’s de facto official figures, as published in the World’s Best Racehorse Rankings.
Moreover, whichever ratings system is used, he remains well down the pecking order among European-trained horses since Frankel. Cracksman, Golden Horn and Ghaiyyath all achieved ratings of 130, Enable peaked at 128, Adayar and Roaring Lion were both rated 127, and Kingman and Battaash both got to 126. That might not be a comprehensive list either.
For perspective it’s also worth remembering Baaeed’s own sire Sea The Stars – pre-Frankel of course, but most definitely among the modern greats – earned a lofty WBRR mark of 133, having won six of Europe’s most prestigious G1s in a year, including the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Arc.
Admittedly, other ratings systems – including TRC Race Ratings and Timeform – have taken a much more positive view of the Lockinge form. But even these new ratings still leave Baaeed respectively 9lb and 13lb adrift of Frankel at his zenith.
Baaeed’s current portfolio on TRC Global Rankings isn’t startling compared to other world #1s since Frankel. He is well below the median among the 19 horses to have attained top spot since 2014 – though it is worth remembering that these are world rankings, so the likes of American Pharoah and Winx push up the average.
What distinguishes Baaeed from Sea The Stars and all of the others – bar Frankel – is that he has never been beaten. So long as he remains unbeaten, and particularly if his programme continues to follow in the footsteps of Frankel, then comparisons will only increase.
However, while it’s not too hard to see Baaeed pushing himself further up the list before too long, it will be a huge stretch for him to even get close to Frankel’s imposing status.
That said, we almost certainly haven’t seen Baaeed’s limit yet, and he could well make significant improvement when he steps up to a mile and a quarter or more and meets the pick of what looks an exciting three-year-old crop.
If he can overcome increasingly difficult tasks, as Frankel did, and remain unbeaten then we might well be able to say he’s the nearest thing we’ve seen since.
But the new Frankel? Not yet for sure, and probably never. Frankel was equine perfection and surely a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon.
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