Is Del Mar, where the Breeders’ Cup was held for the second time just four weeks ago, actually the sort of track where the ‘World Championships’ of horseracing should be staged? Now that the fall meet at the beautiful California track has concluded, Geir Stabell pores over the stats to see if his suspicions that it is not are borne out.
Does a track with an unusually short home stretch, and strong draw biases on the turf course, offer the fair playing field desirable at one of the world’s greatest race meetings?
Del Mar is an unusual racecourse, different from most other tracks, a place for course specialists.
If you believe that horses coming from nearby Santa Anita, for instance, must be able to act round Del Mar, think again. Even they often struggle to adapt where ‘the turf meets the surf’.
It is a sharp track, with a 1.4-furlong finish and luck in running is often a big factor, not to mention the draw, especially in turf races over 5 furlongs or a mile, and both those distances are used at the Breeders’ Cup.
Sprints and mile events on grass are regularly lost at the draw for post positions. This can be the case at other venues, of course, but it’s more prevalent at Del Mar. Let’s examine how racing panned out over these two trips at Del Mar in 2021.
In 5-furlong races at this year’s summer and fall meetings, 294 starters broke from the five inside posts. Forty-seven came back as winners (15.9 percent), whereas 94 starters broke from stalls 8-12 and not one triumphed.
Posts 1 and 2 produced 25 winners from 118 starters (21.2%).
With such stark numbers, it’s hard to accept that this course should be used to determine who has the best turf sprinter around, who has a horse deserving to be an Eclipse Award candidate.
That the course can only accommodate 12 horses is another negative factor. The selection process is difficult enough for races with 14 runners. There will always be talented contenders locked out – two more in the sprint on turf.
The 2021 Breeders’ Cup Sprint was won gate to wire from stall 3 by Golden Pal, who beat Lieutenant Dan (4) in a race where four of the first five places were filled by horses breaking from the five inside positions. Horses drawn in the five outside stalls finished 6, 7, 9, 10 and 11.
Practically impossible task
The BC Mile was won by Space Blues, who raced prominently from gate 2. He beat Smooth Like Strait, who tried to make all from 1.
Ivar, taking stall 12 after being on the ‘also eligible’ reserve list, managed to get up for third, while Raging Bull took fourth from gate 3. Three of the first four placed horses came from 1, 2 and 3.
The draw bias is not as bad over a mile, but there is definitely a factor – and this race has 14 runners, making the turning track and the short run-in even more detrimental to horses drawn wide.
Many of these horses face a practically impossible task. Not only do they have to forfeit ground, they are also asked to make up more of the deficit coming down a swift 919-foot home straight.
In 2021, 425 starters broke from gates 1-5 over a mile on turf at Del Mar. Forty-eight came back as winners, giving the five inside posts an 11.3 percent strike rate. The five outside posts produced just six winners from 88 starters, meaning a strike rate of 6.8 percent.
Horses drawn towards the inside had a 40 percent better chance of winning than those drawn to the outside.
As over 5 furlongs, the mile is also a distance where being drawn in stall 1 or 2 gives an edge. The two lowest numbers produced 22 winners from 170 starters in 2021. Not as strong an edge as over 5 furlongs, but with a 12.9 percent strike rate certainly significant compared with the 6.8 percent for horses drawn wide.
The dirt course is an altogether different story.
Del Mar’s main track seems to be very fair, over most distances. However, the Classic is run over ten furlongs, a distance used only for the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. With just that event, and the BC Classic, we do not have meaningful stats to know if there is a strong bias over this trip at Del Mar.
The history of the Pacific Classic suggests there is, but it is a speed, not a draw bias. Knicks Go led every step of the way to capture this year’s BC Classic, winning the race in exactly the same manner as Gun Runner did when the Breeders’ Cup came to Del Mar in 2017.
Recent Pacific Classic winners Maximum Security, California Chrome and Game On Dude all led from start to finish, while Accelerate, Beholder and Higher Power all won the big race after racing in second place from the outset.
Speedy horses appear to have a great advantage. Last year's Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner, Knicks Go is a serious racehorse, make no mistake about that - indeed he is world-ranked 1 in the TRC standings, but it’s fair to say that he picked the right year to have a crack at the BC Classic.