July 24-25: Only five horses, including a pacemaker, lined up for the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes at Ascot, four fillies went to post for the G1 Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga, and no more than six horses took part in the G1 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen in Munich.
Three top-level contests attracted 15 runners. And it’s not as if that is particularly rare. Last year, the King George had three runners, and this year's G1 Eclipse Stakes at Sandown had four. Is something going wrong?
The first three home both in the King George and the Eclipse were previous G1 winners, but these races were not exactly super-competitive. In fact, with such small fields, it’s difficult to assess the quality of the winners’ performances with any confidence.
Was Mishriff at his best behind Adayar on King George day? Were both he and Addeybb badly in need of the run when beaten by St Mark’s Basilica in the Eclipse? What about El Drama, a 28/1 outsider who missed the break and was eased in the dying strides yet finished just 6½ lengths behind St Mark’s Basilica?
Was Love well below par in King George. What about when she beat five rivals (and just one fellow G1 winner) in the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot?
It's not Adayar's fault that so few were put in front of him at Ascot, but it means that it's too soon to say exactly how good he is. Many of the pundits offering pre-race comments like “not quite good enough” and “better over shorter” about his King George runner-up, Mishriff, were praising Adayar as a new superstar after the race. But surely there simply isn’t enough evidence yet to truly assess this son of Frankel.
Too many G1s have become easier to win in recent years, and one reason is that there are far too many of them. Quite a few have more of a G2 look. The Bayerisches-Zuchtrennen, won by the odds-on favourite Skalleti, went off with six runners. Only three of them had previously even contested a G1, and Skalleti was the only one who brought G1-winning form.
When Enable won the 2020 edition of the King George, she ‘stormed home’ by over five lengths from a legless Sovereign (who had set out to make all at a strong pace) and Japan (who passed the winning post 16½ lengths behind Enable). So, in being a distant last, Japan secured “3rd, King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes, G1” for his family’s catalogue page. Surely it’s time to consider a new standard for sales catalogues, giving the number of runners in races mentioned. It would make the information more accurate.
Basic mathematics
When the European Pattern system was introduced back in 1971, the continent had 243 Group races. Fifty were assigned G1 rstatus.
This season, there are 84 G1s scheduled in Europe.
Basic mathematics says it is now 1.68 times easier to win a G1 than when the scheme was formed. The number of G1s increased from 50 to 55 when Germany joined the scheme in 1972, but, against that, Italy, a nation that actually staged more Group races than Ireland in the early 70s, today doesn't have a single G1.
With more options, trainers and owners aiming for G1 honours can more easily duck the opposition. When the objective to win a top-level event in order to increase the stud value of the horse is more important than the wish to find out exactly how good the animal is/is not, then it will contribute to making racing less competitive.
Until, of course, the sensible move is made - reducing the number of G1s and restoring the Pattern system to what it was once intended to be.
Believing that more is better is a big mistake. More G1s is beneficial to commercial breeders, but it is not improving the quality of the sport.
What exactly is a G1 winner these days? It can be a horse worthy of a rating somewhere between 114 and 130. Snow Lantern, winner of the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, currently holds an official rating of 115, the same mark given to last year's winner of that race, Nazeef. The Falmouth is part of a series of G1s for fillies and mares that were upgraded in 2004, presumably to help more fillies and mares attain G1 status. It may have achieved that - but it hardly made the division stronger.
Nazeef also won the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes, another of these commercially upgraded events and a race that was won by Billesdon Brook in 2019. Her highest mark was 116, the same mark Deirdre earned after beating fillies and mares in the 2019 edition of the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.
Nazeef, Billesdon Brook and Deirdre all came up short when they were tried against males, yet as G1 winners they have been given the same status as champions like Zenyatta, Enable, Goldikova, Treve and Zarkava.
This upgrading of a number of fillies’ and mares’ races has also played its part in reducing fields in Gs open to both sexes.