We defer to nobody in our admiration of Tiz The Law. He is currently the highest-rated 3-year-old in the world by our new Horse rankings, and he has been the #1 Kentucky Derby candidate since the start of this column’s 2020 iteration back in February.
That said, this is no mere coronation for the Belmont and Travers winner. He’s back to the venue of his sole defeat, and a big field at Churchill Downs presents a much tougher spot than having to beat only nine opponents in those New York affairs. In theory, anyway.
So, defeat could be rationalised, perhaps, but it would still be an enormous disappointment. Tiz The Law won the Belmont and the Travers like the superhorse he had earlier suggested.
Could any horse apart from Tiz The Law produce something better here? Surely not. We have ridden him all the way to this point and do not intend to dismount now.
But there is at least one horse with huge potential. And, make no mistake, if Honor A.P. gets rolling here with his giant stride, Tiz The Law will not be treating him like he did the Travers field.
Yet, the fact remains that Tiz The Law is a different breed of cat. It seems as if he is getting better by the race. If he does come through this test, a Triple Crown beckons at Pimlico, and he could even be a threat to the equine Galacticos at the top of our global rankings with victory both here and in Maryland.
The Prep School rankings would hardly have fluctuated from last time but for some last-minute defections. Notably, the massively talented #4 Art Collector, but also #5 King Guillermo and #7 Dr Post. Tiz The Law could have handled them easily, but it does make his task more straightforward that they miss the race.
This final rundown of Prep School does present an opportunity to introduce a few new shooters to the standings, so let’s get to it.
#1 (no change) TIZ THE LAW
Constitution – Tizfiz (Tiznow)
The standout colt of his generation did everything expected in the Belmont. He was even better in the Travers. There wasn’t a moment he looked in trouble, and his eased-down six-length defeat of Caracaro could have come by double the margin.
When a colt is this talented, he tends to come much more under the microscope than lesser beings. Apart from him encountering a bad trip – which is a lesser concern than for some owing to high gate-speed – there are two aspects of this race worth commenting upon.
Primarily, Tiz The Law faces the strongest and best-quality stayers he has encountered. The early fractions of the ten-furlong Travers were 23.65 – 24.71 – 23.59 while in the Belmont he tracked a 23.11 – 23.05 – 23.78 tempo over a furlong-shorter journey. Neither of these races were run at what you might call Classic pace. True, we have no idea how that might affect Tiz The Law, but the point is this might be a different test.
It’s probably a smaller negative that Tiz The Law returns to the scene of his only defeat. He was trapped down on the rail with not much room to manoeuvre when third to Silver Prospector and an opponent here, Finnick The Fierce. It must be said, however, that he did not find a lot when in the clear. But that was a sloppy surface and he is a different horse now, so it is not fair to debit him – even from a wide draw.
#2 (no change) HONOR A.P.
Honor Code – Hollywood Story (Wild Rush)
This column has been high on this colt since his second in the G2 San Felipe Stakes and there is nothing about his defeat by former #2 Thousand Words in a listed race at Del Mar to dissuade us. He earns the #2 slot via his defeat of Authentic in the Santa Anita Derby, having been returning from a layoff when that race-fit rival defeated him previously. Clearly, it is close between the two and our rankings here reflect that.
But Honor A.P. is a colt built for prime time. The harder and further they go, the more it will suit him. Thousand Words got to dictate a steady pace when turning him over, while Honor A.P. was banged at the start and had to cover ground early while not yet into his running. That’s not him and it figures that he will reverse the form here in an environment that will play to his strengths.
One day, horseracing authorities around the world will realise that publishing the heights, weights and other physical measurements of horses before top races could really stimulate fan interest. If they did it here, it is a sure bet that this colt would impress with his range and stride. He is a beast alright – will the world get to see how he can turn reach to raw power?
#3 (no change) AUTHENTIC
Into Mischief – Flawless (Mr Greeley)
While others in the Bob Baffert barn have fallen by the wayside, the gifted son of talented sire Into Mischief has remained steadfast to the cause. True, he took a sucker punch by #2 Honor A.P. when not completely focussed in the Santa Anita Derby, but that first defeat of his career seems to have just emboldened him. Certainly, he was tenacious in the Haskell to hold off Ny Traffic by a nose as they drew clear of former #7 Dr Post.
If these rankings were down to a colt’s resume, Authetic would retain his #2 slot. But, the logic of rankings as we do them sees him below his Santa Anita conqueror because he does not own a performance better than that horse and did nothing to change that at Monmouth.
But let’s be positive: this is a highly accomplished runner; there is nothing tougher in the Derby field.
#4 (was #6) NY TRAFFIC
Cross Traffic – Mamie Reilly (Graeme Hall)
When third in the G2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February, he didn’t come over as having the profile of a runner who would be #4 in our list at this stage, but this tough grey deserves it after adding further placings in the G2 Louisiana Derby, G3 Matt Winn Stakes and, notably, the G1 Haskell. Ny Traffic has to be ranked somewhere around here after running #3 Authentic close, especially as he pulled clear of the rest.
After nine starts, you would have to doubt he has the upside to take his game to championship level, but his form is getting better in steps and you have to respect him off the last.
#5 (was #8) MAX PLAYER
Honor Code – Fools In Love (Not For Love)
Having his first run since winning the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in April, Max Player stayed on nicely into third in the Belmont behind #1 Tiz The Law and former #7 Dr Post. He ran another great race when keeping on determinedly into third in the Travers, again looking as if he hardly deserved to be in the same race as Tiz.
But this is a colt who just keeps showing up. He seems to lack the all-round weapons to be a truly top-class horse, and ranking him #5 seems odd, but he is one of the most talented closers of his age in America – he could make the trifecta. Something has to in a race that lacks obvious depth.
#6 (was #9) THOUSAND WORDS
Pioneerof The Nile – Pomeroys Pistol (Pomeroy)
After three wins to open his career, Thousand Words made it as high as #2 on this list. And he deserved it too, landing the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity and the G3 Robert B Lewis Stakes in the early stages of the campaign. However, after he failed to reach the first three on his next two starts – notably a disastrous 11th in a listed race at Oaklawn - we dropped him from the list altogether.
Those earlier exploits, added to a runner-up finish to former #9 Uncle Chuck and an all-the-way defeat of #3 Honor A.P. – admittedly in a race that was falsely run – earn him a reprieve.
#7 (re-entry) SOLE VOLANTE
Karakontie – Light Blow (Kingmambo)
This well-bred deep closer has lurked towards the lower reaches of this classification, much as he does in his races. But, as his name suggests, he has taken wings late to make it back to his former spot, having been relegated from the list entirely.
This colt has some very good form – and a couple of head-scratchers. Let’s discount his latest clunker and consider how he looked when winning the G3 Sam F Davis at Tampa or when second there to King Guillermo, who is sorely missed in this line-up. Since then, he has won an allowance race and run a tame sixth in the Belmont. Perhaps the pause-that-refreshes is what he needed. He has the pedigree to excel over this trip.
#8 (new entry) ATTACHMENT RATE
Hard Spun – Arista (Afleet Alex)
Now, it could be that Attachment Rate’s second to Art Collector in the listed Ellis Park Derby turns out to be an illusion. But that rival would have been #2 in this list had he not succumbed to a heel injury earlier this week.
Trainer Dale Romans knows what he is doing, however, and it may be that this colt can outrun his odds. He has one earlier piece of form that also represents the absent: a second to Belmont runner-up Dr Post in an allowance race.
Let’s be honest: this colt is a latecomer to these standings because of others getting injured, but stranger things have happened than a good run from him.
#9 (new) MONEY MOVES
Candy Ride – Citizen Advocate (Proud Citizen)
Having been off the track since March, Money Moves should be sharper than for his closing second in a second-level allowance race at Saratoga in July, which produced a good speed figure. He enters the charts now because he is training well, we know he has got a nice, inside draw for the Derby, and the opposition has been steadily dropping away.
Can he win the Derby off an allowance defeat and no Graded experience on just his fourth career start? It’s hugely doubtful, obviously, but the fact is that he is much more talented than some others in the race who have been afforded greater opportunity. He will stay well, too, so is worth including.
#10 (new) SOUTH BEND
Algorithms – Sandra’s Rose (Old Trieste)
Apart from receiving sentimental support from fans and alumni of Notre Dame’s iconic football team because of his name, South Bend is an interesting lurker here. He closed like a wild horse when second in the G3 Ohio Derby before finishing fourth in the Travers.
Strictly by rankings methodology, South Bend has to be ranked behind third-placed finisher #5 Max Player – not to mention the winner #1 Tiz The Law – but he is gaining in seasoning nicely and could make the superfecta if he gets the breaks. His run will be starting from deep in the backfield.