It’s not really a Kentucky Derby trial these days, but James Willoughby couldn’t resist taking a look at last Saturday’s Swale Stakes at Gulfstream as part of his Road to the Kentucky Derby series.
Trial number: 8 of 27
TRC trial rank: #10
Trial name: Swale Stakes
Grade: 2
Our Grade: 3
Course: Gulfstream Park
Date: Feb 4, 2017
Distance: 7f
Going: Fast
Winner: Favorable Outcome
Winner Expected RPR: 107.6
Winner Actual RPR: 108
Winning Trainer: Chad Brown (TRC Global Ranking: #2)
Winning Jockey: Javier Castellano (#5)
Winning Owner: Klaravich Stables Inc & William H Lawrence (#21)
Winning Sire: Flatter (#28)
Analysis
It’s a long time since Easy Goer and Seeking The Gold figured on the Swale roll of honour and it is really a test-bed for top sprinters, into which mould Favorable Outcome fits snugly. He had been off since running down the field in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but this was a great start to his sophomore season and he is one to follow.
The Equibase chart chronicles how he followed 23.02 and 22.86 splits before taking over late. There is lots to like visually, too.
Runner-up Three Rules is a similarly progressive sprinter/miler and became the latest to give the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile form a boost.
Read James Willoughby’s earlier Derby trial analyses
1. Los Alamitos Cash Call Futurity (Mastery)
2. Jerome (El Areeb)
3. Sham Stakes (Gormley)
4. Lecomte Stakes (Guest Suite)
5. Holy Bull (Irish War Cry)
6. Withers (El Areeb)
7. Robert B. Lewis (Royal Mo)