Is the world’s balance of power starting to shift back to the American sire?

The TRC Global Rankings are highlighting an important rise in the value of U.S. sires. Our numbers try to capture the true hierarchy of stallions using the interaction between their runners in Group and Graded races round the world. And the trends they quantify are real ones, driven by who has beaten whom, not arbitrary scores or average earnings or such.

On this week three years ago, the top 30 sires around the world contained the following stallions classified as having their Modal Country (the country where most of their progeny race) as the USA:

Not one sire was in the top 10, made up at the time of Dubawi, Deep Impact, Galileo, Stay Gold, Dansili, Shamardal, Fastnet Rock, Heart’s Cry, Monsun and Invincible Spirit. There were only five U.S. sires in the top 30 and, in California Chrome’s 3-year-old season, it seemed as if U.S. bloodstock was at a low ebb.

The following year, American Pharoah emerged to remind the world of the thrilling power and dynamism of the dirt horse. And on this day two years ago, the American presence in the top 30 TRC Global Rankings for sires looked like this:

The growing influence of a bunch of sires capable of getting world-class two-turn stock was becoming evident. Tapit was up 10 points and six places, Medaglia d’Oro had already proved his pan-global potency and Candy Ride was on the charge. These aren’t one-dimensional speed sires, but sources of solid mid-range stamina.

Last year, when Uncle Mo’s son Nyquist hinted at having Pharoah-like power, but ultimately came up short, the trend among U.S. sires was clearly evident:

Whereas no sire with his Modal Country of USA had penetrated the top 10 two years earlier, now half the stallions in this elite bracket had that credential. Tapit was up a further 6 points, Medaglia d’Oro was up 12 points, Candy Ride was up 14 points, and Curlin and Uncle Mo were poking their noses into the top 20.

One year on, the latest classifications show that strength in depth among globally significant U.S. stallions has grown a lot:

While Tapit and Medaglia d’Oro have fallen back from their career highs, Candy Ride, Curlin, Uncle Mo, Ghostzapper (a six-point gainer this week after two Graded stakes winners at the weekend) and a raft of others are on the rise.

In Europe, if you can’t get to Galileo or Dubawi, your chances of a European classic winner at 10f+ go down very sharply. But let’s not forget that Galileo is a male-line descendant of Northern Dancer and Dubawi is a grandson of Seeking The Gold. In fact, when you remember the influence of Danzig and Mr Prospector, pretty much the whole of European bloodstock was built by sires who would have had ‘Modal Country USA’ had we been publishing TRC Global Rankings 20 or 30 years ago, just as Japanese bloodstock owes its foundation to Sunday Silence.

It is conceivable that it is time to go ‘Back to the Future’ to seek out alternatives to Galileo and Dubawi for the European classic winners of tomorrow. Sure, it is a sample of one, but last week’s Prix de Diane may be a foreshadow of this effect, falling to Senga, a daughter of American-based stallion Blame (a son of the aforementioned Seeking The Gold). Senga was giving her sire his first G1 winner, helping him move up four points to slot #220 in the latest iteration of TRC Global Rankings.